王红平,刘凯.基于LMDI模型的福建省造纸工业碳排放影响因素分析[J].中国造纸学报,2023,38(4):60-66 |
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基于LMDI模型的福建省造纸工业碳排放影响因素分析 |
Analysis on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from the Paper Industry in Fujian Province Based on LMDI Model |
投稿时间:2023-07-17 |
DOI:10.11981/j.issn.1000-6842.2023.04.60 |
中文关键词: 造纸工业 碳排放 LMDI分解 驱动因素 |
Key Words:paper industry carbon emissions LMDI decomposition driving factors |
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中文摘要: |
作为我国主要的造纸省份,福建省造纸工业的碳排放变化对中国造纸工业的碳排放发展至关重要。本研究对2007—2021年间福建省造纸工业的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量进行了估算,分析其资产总额、总资产产值率、能源强度与能源结构对碳排放的影响,并采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)法确定碳排放的主要驱动与抑制因素。结果表明:(1)福建省造纸工业的CO2排放变化主要分为3个阶段:2007—2013年缓慢增加,2014—2018年快速上升,2019—2021年保持稳定状态;(2)CO2排放的主要贡献能源是煤炭和电力,2007—2021年间两者占CO2排放的比例分别接近50%和50%,其他能源产生的CO2比例非常低。能源强度经历了快速下降阶段(2007—2013年)和稳定阶段(2014—2021年);(3)CO2排放增加的主要促进因素是总资产和总资产产值率,主要抑制因素是能源强度。最后,对福建省造纸工业碳减排的可持续发展政策提出建议。 |
Abstract: |
As a major paper industry province in China, the changes in carbon emissions from the paper industry in Fujian province are crucial for the development of carbon emissions in China’s paper industry. This study estimated the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the paper industry in Fujian province from 2007 to 2021, analyzed the impact of its total assets, total asset output value rate, energy intensity, and energy structure on carbon emissions, and determined the main driving and controlling factors of carbon emissions using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The results indicate that: (1) The changes in CO2 emissions from the paper industry in Fujian province can be mainly divided into three stages: a slow increase from 2007 to 2013, a rapid increase from 2014 to 2018, and a stable state from 2019 to 2021; (2) The main contributors to CO2 emissions are coal and electricity, which account for nearly 50% and 50% of CO2 emissions during 2007—2021, respectively, and the proportion of CO2 generated by other energy sources is very low. The energy intensity shows a rapid decline stage (2007—2013) and a stable stage (2014—2021); (3) The main driving factors for the increase in CO2 emissions are total assets and total asset value ratio, while the main inhibiting factor is energy intensity. Finally, some sustainable development policies were put forward for carbon reduction in the paper industry in Fujian province. |
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