福建省造纸工业碳排放的灰色关联度、Tapio脱钩分析及情景预测

Grey Correlation Analysis, Tapio Decoupling Analysis, and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions from the Paper Industry in Fujian Province

中文关键词:  造纸工业  碳排放  灰色关联度  Tapio脱钩模型  情景预测

Key Words:paper industry  carbon emissions  grey correlation degree  Tapio decoupling model  scenario prediction

中文摘要:

      随着中国2030年前“碳达峰”目标的临近，福建省高能耗、高排放的造纸工业面临严峻的碳减排压力。本研究运用灰色关联度模型，计算总资产、总资产产值率、能源强度和能源结构与CO₂排放之间的关联度，通过Tapio脱钩模型，确定造纸工业产出与CO₂排放的脱钩状态，利用STIRPAT模型，预测4种情景下CO₂排放量，评估福建省造纸工业2030年前实现“碳达峰”目标的潜力。结果表明：① 福建省造纸工业的总资产、总资产产值率、能源强度和能源结构与CO₂排放量关联度相近，且关联性较高；② 2007—2021年，福建省造纸工业产出与碳排放呈现6种脱钩状态，在研究期内的大多数年份表现为强脱钩与弱脱钩状态；总资产和能源结构对碳排放起到主要的拉动作用，能源强度是碳排放脱钩的主要驱动力；③ 预测期内（2022—2030年）基准情景与快速发展情景下CO₂排放量快速上升，低碳发展情景下CO₂排放量增长率相对较低，强低碳发展情景下CO₂排放量呈现非常缓慢的上升趋势。最后对降低福建省造纸工业碳排放，促进造纸工业可持续发展提出建议。

Abstract:

      As China’s goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 approaches， the paper industry in Fujian province， with its high energy consumption and high CO₂ emissions， is facing severe pressure to reduce carbon emissions. In this study， the grey correlation model was used to calculate the correlation between total assets， total asset output rate， energy intensity， and energy structure with CO₂ emissions. The Tapio decoupling model was used to determine the decoupling status between paper industry output and CO₂ emissions. The STIRPAT model was used to predict CO₂ emissions under four scenarios， exploring the potential of the paper industry in Fujian province to achieve the “carbon peak” goal before 2030. The results showed that： ① The total assets， total asset output value， energy intensity， and energy structure of the paper industry in Fujian province were closely related to CO₂ emissions， and the correlation was relatively high. ② From 2007 to 2021， the paper industry output and carbon emissions in Fujian province showed six decoupling states， with strong and weak decoupling states in most years of the research period. The total assets and energy structure played a major driving role in carbon emission increase， while energy intensity was the main driving force for decoupling carbon emissions from industrial output. ③ During the forecast period （2022—2030）， CO₂ emissions would increase rapidly under the baseline and rapid development scenarios. The growth rate of CO₂ emissions under the low-carbon development scenario would be relatively low， while CO₂ emissions under the strong low-carbon development scenario would show a very slow upward trend. Finally， this study provided recommendations for reducing carbon emissions of the paper industry in Fujian province and promoting sustainable development of the paper industry.