外商直接投资与我国造纸工业出口额的动态关系研究

Study on Dynamic Relationship between FDI and Export Amount of China’s Paper Industry

中文关键词:  外商直接投资  造纸工业出口额  协整检验  多项式分布滞后模型

Key Words:foreign direct investment  export amount of China’s paper industry  co-integration test  polynomial distributed lags

中文摘要:

      运用动态计量分析模型实证考察了外商直接投资与我国造纸工业出口额之间的关系。结果显示，外商直接投资与我国造纸工业出口额之间存在长期协整关系及从外商直接投资到出口额的单向因果关系；外商直接投资在促进我国造纸工业出口额增长方面存在2年的滞后期；外商直接投资每增加1%，可使我国造纸工业出口额在3年内共累计增长1.300%。

Abstract:

      Study on the dynamic relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and export amount of China’s paper industry was carried out by applying unit root test, co-integration test, Granger causality test and polynomial distributed lags model. The results showed that there is a long-term co-integration between FDI and export amount of China’s paper industry, and FDI is Granger cause of export amount. The PDLs results showed that the lag period of the influence of FDI on export amount is 2 years, the 1% increased in FDI can lead to a 1.300% increasd in export amount of China’s paper industry within 3 years. FDI promotes export amount of China’s paper industry gradually and significantly.